A Tale of Two Deals

The tale of two deals… The one Trump tore up in 2018, and whatever new one the US may have to sign to climb out of the war he started this February. This is a war of his choice. It’s very important to note that Congress, specifically the Republicans, has until just recently chosen not to utilize their power to stop a war that they know is wrong.

The first was a landmark, the result of a great deal of hard work, good-faith negotiation, and real diplomatic muscle from this country and a coalition of allies. It cut Iran's centrifuges in half, locked the Fordow facility out of uranium enrichment, and significantly restrained Iran's nuclear breakout time. International inspectors routinely confirmed Iran was complying with every aspect of the agreement ahead of our departure. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom asked us to reconsider. Trump called it "horrible" and pulled us out anyway.

Now, Trump has us at war with Iran. One of the reasons the administration has offered for that war is Iran's nuclear threat, the very thing the prior deal was designed to constrain. The same allies who helped build that agreement, and who warned us not to tear it up, have not exactly lined up to stand alongside us in this one. Hard to blame them.

So here is a question worth considering… If we are going to find an off-ramp before more blood is shed, more tax dollars are hemorrhaged, and the global economy is fractured for years to come, we will have to come back to the table with Iran and sign something. How will that compare to the deal the president ridiculed and tore up?

Reporting says the administration is offering Iran roughly $20 billion in unfrozen assets and asking, in exchange, for Iran to ship its enriched uranium out of the country and accept a twenty-year freeze on enrichment. Iran will only agree to a monitored "downblending" of its stockpile in place, has countered the freeze with a single-digit number of years, and is demanding international recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. The trade at the heart of the 2015 deal, Iranian assets unfrozen for restrictions on Iran's program, is the same trade now being offered. Only the terms are weaker, and the Iranian government across the table from us is more fractured and harder-line than the one we negotiated with a decade ago.

And in the meantime, American soldiers have died. The Pentagon's own comptroller told Congress today the war has cost at least $29 billion so far. Outside reporting puts the real figure, with base repairs and equipment replacement included, closer to $40 to $50 billion. Gas prices are up and will continue to climb. And many other aspects of the economy will continue to be significantly impacted.

We had a deal. Trump tore it up. The math has not improved. But the alternative, no deal at all, would be much, much worse. KMI